The Global Gas Crisis Triggered by the US-Israel-Iran War: Causes, Market Disruptions, and Policy Responses

Abstract

This paper analyzes the multifaceted causes and profound global implications of a hypothetical gas crisis precipitated by a US-Israel-Iran conflict. It posits that such a regional conflagration in critical energy corridors would generate cascading instability across international energy markets, necessitating proactive multilateral strategies to mitigate severe economic and geopolitical ramifications. Specifically, this study will delve into the intricate relationship between geopolitics and energy supply, a dominant focus within energy security research, to understand how regional conflicts exacerbate market volatility and disrupt supply chains. The strategic importance of natural gas as a critical commodity means its trade is inherently interwoven with national security and diplomatic strategies, making it highly susceptible to disruptions from international hostilities.  This geopolitical susceptibility is particularly evident in the context of the Middle East, a region historically characterized by significant political instability that has repeatedly impacted global energy supplies. Future disruptions in this region, especially concerning natural gas, would be particularly critical given its increasing role in the global energy market due to its advantages in pricing, availability, and cleaner profile compared to other fossil fuels.